What I am definitely not seeing is strong movement in the Democrats’ position in this post-Kavanaugh environment. I can find you some examples of where I think the controversy has helped the Democrats, but the overall picture is bleak. It doesn’t look like a wave that is cresting but more like one that is petering out.
It could be that previous polling was always too optimistic and that things would inevitably get closer as the election approached and the Republicans’ traditional advantage with likely midterm voters took effect. It could also be that things are actually just as bad as they ever have been for the GOP but that the likely voter models used by many polling outfits are too reliant on voter behavior from previous cycles. They may be discounting too many Democratic voters’ likelihood of showing up.
That seems like grasping at straws to me, though, and I’m here to raise the alarm. With only a few weeks left before Election Day, the Democrats are not where they hoped to be.