The Senate is another matter. Most of the states in play this cycle just happen to be mostly smaller, rural and conservative. Of all of these, Nevada, Florida and Arizona are harbingers of broader demographic shifts nationwide–but states like Montana, Missouri, West Virginia and North Dakota are not.
It seems incontrovertible at this point that the battle of Judge Kavanaugh has both helped and hurt Republicans. On the downside for them, the majority of Americans are upset by Kavanaugh’s confirmation and want to see continued investigations into allegations of assault and other misbehavior. On a broader level, resistance to conservative policies and tactics has never been fiercer and more adamant than it is today, mostly due to the extremism and cruelty that is now so obviously inherent to movement conservatism. Millennials, women and people of color are overwhelmingly determined in their opposition to the Republican Party, nor is that likely to change in the near future.
But the short-term advantage for Republicans is that the show of white male rage by Kavanaugh and his defenders has re-polarized the conservative electorate and energized their base. As a result, deeply Republican states are trending further Republican in recent polling, and Senate contests in those states are becoming nationalized to the Democrats’ disadvantage.